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The cause of the Ukraine war Russia 2022

The cause of the Ukraine war Russia 2022

The cause of the Ukraine war Russia 2022

When Vladimir Putin destroyed peaces Europe by unleashing war on a democracy of 44 million people, his justification was that contemporary Western-leaning Ukraine was a constant threat and that Russia could not feel "safe, developed, and existent".

But after weeks of bombing, thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions of refugees, the question remains: What is the goal of his war and is there a way out of this situation?

What does Putin want?

The objectives set by the Russian president at the beginning of the Russian invasion appear to have been curtailed during the war, which was assumed to end in a swift victory. Putin could not even admit that it was an invasion or a war, preferring the phrase "special military operation".

What is clear, however, is that he sees this as a pivotal moment in Russian history. "The future of Russia and its future place in the world are at stake," said the head of foreign intelligence, Sergei Naryshkin.

The Russian leader's initial goal was to invade Ukraine and dismiss its government, ending forever its desire to join the western defensive NATO.

Putin told the Russian people that his goal was "the disarmament and de-Nazification of Ukraine", to protect those who have been subjected to what he described as 8 years of bullying and genocide by the Ukrainian government. He stressed that "the occupation of Ukrainian territory is not our plan, we do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force."

But there were no Nazis, no genocide, and Russia brutally seized dozens of towns and cities, uniting Ukrainians in opposing its occupation.

The bombing continues, but recent reports from the peace talks indicate that Russia is no longer seeking to overthrow the Ukrainian government, aiming instead for Ukraine to become neutral. 

Ukraine has become the focus of world attention in recent weeks, after Russia amassing large forces on its borders and the Kremlin presenting a list of demands to the White House, prompting the West to impose sanctions and military deployments to the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

As attempts to defuse the crisis diplomatically continue, world leaders have embarked on a series of international visits in recent days to try to resolve the crisis. The United States said Russia was planning to create a pretext to invade Ukraine and could launch an attack at any time. On Saturday, Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of "quick and huge costs" if Russia moved against Ukraine, and both Washington and Moscow took measures to reduce the number of staff at their embassies in the country.

Tensions escalated with Putin recognizing the independence of the pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and ordering Russian soldiers to deploy in the region, ostensibly as peacekeepers.

The Kremlin's moves sparked a storm of Western criticism and a wave of sanctions, and led to Western countries increasing their military aid to Ukraine.

What does Russia want from Ukraine?

Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union before it collapsed at the end of the Cold War in 1991, draining Russia's people, resources, and economy, and diminishing its status as a great power.

Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to regain some of that glory and what his country lost during the Cold War, stressing that Russians and Ukrainians represent "one people."

Does Russia want to invade Ukraine?

Russia has repeatedly denied plans to invade. But Moscow has massed about 190,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and has moved tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment westward from bases in Russia's Far East.

In addition, Russia is moving troops and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Military exercises began there on Thursday, alarming Western officials who believe they may open a new front to attack Ukraine.

The Kremlin says the exercises are taking place in response to the threat the West poses to Russia's security. Russia has moved ships near the shores of Ukraine in the Black and Azov seas, and is conducting naval maneuvers in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and in the Arabian Sea with the Chinese navy. On January 25, Moscow announced new military exercises in the North Caucasus.

By massing troops near Ukraine, Putin aims to extract concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and force him to give Russia a say in his country's future. This would send a message to the other countries of the former Soviet Union that the West cannot guarantee their security. To escalate the pressure, Putin enjoys a range of military options that fall short of full occupation, from small incursions to limited conflict in the eastern Donbass region.

On February 3, US officials reported that the intelligence showed a Russian plan to launch a fabricated attack by the Ukrainian military or intelligence services against Russian territory, or against Russian speakers, to justify the incursion into Ukraine. The plan would include Moscow's use of a propaganda video depicting "scenes" of a false explosion, corpses and an array of destroyed buildings and military equipment.

The US and British governments have repeatedly reported that they have secret intelligence warnings that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. Western officials say the aim of such statements is to prevent a similar attack and put the Kremlin in a state of imbalance.

On Friday, the White House said it believed Russia could invade Ukraine at any time, and urged Americans to leave the country as soon as possible.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced that the United States will not conduct a military evacuation of citizens from a war zone.

Why does Putin want a neutral Ukraine?

Since Ukraine gained its independence in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has moved gradually towards the West, towards both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The Russian leader aims to reverse that trend, as he sees the fall of the Soviet Union as a "disintegration of historical Russia."

Putin has claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. "Ukraine has never had a tradition of establishing a real state," he asserted, denying Ukrainian history.

In 2013 Putin pressured the pro-Russian leader of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, not to sign a deal with the European Union, which led to protests that eventually toppled the Ukrainian president in February 2014.

Russia responded in 2014 by seizing Ukraine's southern Crimea region, fomenting an insurgency in the east and supporting separatists who fought Ukrainian forces in an eight-year war that has killed 14,000 people.

There was a ceasefire and the 2015 Minsk peace agreement that was never implemented. Shortly before his invasion of Ukraine, President Putin tore up the peace agreement and recognized two small states backed by Russia as independent from Ukraine.

When he sent his troops to Ukraine, Putin accused NATO of threatening our "historic future as a nation", claiming, without foundation, that NATO countries wanted to take the war to Crimea.

Is there a way out of the war Russia and Ukraine?
Adviser to the Ukrainian president, Mykhailo Podolyak, believes that a ceasefire can start in the coming days because Russian forces are stuck in their current positions.

Both sides spoke positively of progress in the negotiations, and Podolyak says the Russian president has softened his demands.

At the start of the war, the Russian leader wanted Ukraine to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and to recognize the independence of the separatist-run east, and for Ukraine to change its constitution to ensure it would not join NATO and the European Union.

The future status of Crimea and the Russian-backed states of Luhansk and Donetsk are still far from resolved, but they may not spoil the agreement if the two sides agree to tackle this problem at a later time.

It appears that Russia has agreed that it cannot overthrow the Ukrainian leadership and replace it with a puppet government, as is the case in Belarus. President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the start of the war that he had been warned: "The enemy has labeled me the number one target, and my family the second."

"It's as if Putin has to accept a very limited list," says Tatiana Stanovaya, of the Analytics R Politics and Carnegie Center in Moscow.

This is because Russia is considering creating a "neutral and demilitarized" Ukraine with its army and navy on the lines of Austria or Sweden, both members of the European Union.

Austria is neutral, but Sweden is not. In fact, it is not aligned and nonetheless participates in NATO exercises.

Not everyone is convinced that Russia is negotiating in good faith. The French foreign minister said that Moscow should declare a ceasefire first, because you are not holding talks "with a gun pointed at your head".

What are the demands of Ukraine?

The presidential adviser says Ukraine's demands are clear: a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, but also legally binding security guarantees that would give Ukraine protection from a range of allies that would prevent attacks and "play an active role on Ukraine's side in the conflict".

Securing a Russian military withdrawal to pre-war positions would not only be a demand for Ukraine, but also a red line for the West, which will refuse to accept other "frozen Russian conflicts," says Mark Wheeler, a professor of international law and a former UN mediation expert.

Ukraine has also softened its stance since the Russian invasion with President Zelensky saying that Ukrainians now understand that NATO will not accept them as a member state: "It is a fact and it must be recognized."

"We are working on documents that the presidents will be able to discuss further and sign," Podolyak told PBS. "Obviously, that will happen soon because this is the only way to end this war."

Will Putin reach an agreement with NATO?

The Russian president's hatred of the West and its defense-military alliance of 30 NATO members has only increased. He may think of compromise with Ukraine, but for him the West has one goal: to divide and ultimately destroy society in Russia.

Prior to the war, NATO demanded that the clock be turned back to 1997, the reversal of its expansion to the east, the removal of its forces and military infrastructure from member states that have joined the alliance since 1997, and the non-deployment of "offensive weapons near the borders of Russia", meaning Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. .

Russian invasion of Ukraine detailed coverage

In President Putin's eyes, the West promised in 1990 that NATO would not expand "an inch to the east," but it did so anyway. 

That was before the collapse of the Soviet Union, so the promise to then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev referred only to East Germany in the context of a united Germany.

Gorbachev later said that "the issue of NATO expansion was never discussed" at the time. Having witnessed Putin's willingness to destroy European cities to achieve his goals, Western leaders are now under no illusion. 

German Chancellor Olaf Schulz believes that the Russian president "wants to rule Europe according to his world view" and has been described by President Joe Biden as a war criminal.

 Both Schultz and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of the European continent at a turning point in its history.

Before the war, Russia demanded that all US nuclear weapons be banned from leaving the United States. The United States has offered to start talks on limiting short and medium-range missiles, as well as on a new ICBM treaty, but there is little chance of that happening at the moment.

Tatiana Stanovaya fears entering the new Cold War spiral: "I have very strong feelings that we must prepare for a new ultimatum to the West that will be more militaristic and aggressive than we imagined."

What next for Russia?

President Putin was stunned by the scale of the Western reaction to his invasion. He knew NATO members would never put troops on the ground in Ukraine, but he couldn't guess how much the sanctions were already having a huge impact on the Russian economy, and he's angry. 

The European Union, the United States, Britain and Canada targeted the Russian economy in several ways:

The assets of the Russian Central Bank have been frozen and major Russian banks have been removed from the international SWIFT payment network.

 The United States banned the import of Russian oil and gas. The European Union aims to cut gas imports by two thirds within a year, and Britain seeks to phase out Russian oil by the end of 2022.

 Germany has halted approval of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a major investment for both Russia and European companies.

Russian airlines have been banned from airspace over the European Union, Britain and Canada.

 Personal sanctions have been imposed on President Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and many other individuals. No peace agreement with Ukraine will end these 

sanctions, and Vladimir Putin knows that. Instead of dealing with this, he turned against the Russians, who opposed the war.

 Nearly 15,000 anti-war protesters have been jailed, and almost all independent media has been silenced.

There was no meaningful political opposition left in Russia because opponents either fled the country or, as in the case of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, were imprisoned.

 Russian President Putin says: "The Russian people will always be able to distinguish between true patriots, scum and traitors." Bye, don't forget to subscribe to the site to get all new.